Log in

Change of sentiment in the Eur/Usd

image
От 23 септември 2011

 

Here the change in the sentiment is visible in the Oanda open orders. The sentiment is very, very bullish.

However here we can see that there is a big accumulation of buy stop orders above the price. This is not natural normally the accumulation of buy orders are below the price. Here we have a clear reverse. 

The massive accumulation of buy stop orders is at 1.3800

On the shot on the right we have a clear shift in the dsitribution of the orders. Or maybe is a technical error. Normally the cumulative distribution is oriented with buy orders below and sell above. Here we have Net (Buy Sell cumulative orders) only buy from the both sides.

Take care even if the price action outlook is bearish.

I mean there would be a pressure to activate the orders. On the other hand there may be a pressure to activate stops if the price is gowing downwards. Extreme caution.

 

Comments

  • londontrader 2834 days ago

    hey check out the etoro sentimetn,today when its sentiment was bullish on the eurusd overall euro plummeted in london

    how interesting its always going against us,every way u turn someones behind us

  • JohnLast 2834 days ago

    If it is everytime it will be easy. We will just do the opposite. But the problem is that it is not every time.

    That is why I say warning take care.

  • JohnLast 2833 days ago
    image
    От 23 септември 2011

     

    Finally this was a clear example how when the masses think that the market will go in one direction the market at least temporarily goes in the other. 

    As I mentionned some posts ago The massive accumulation of buy stop orders is at 1.3800

    Here you can see how they were activated. Really the market fooled all. First it fooled the masses that thought that we are bullish. And the market went down. Then many traders should have seen this is as an opportunity to go short. Then the market activates in a very nasty manner the buy orders at 1.3800.

    You can ask me how I know that. Well this is just a hypothesis, bur really when you see how those levels are activated you may should consider integrating this information in your trading plan whatever method you may use. And that is simply because as the price is information the open orders are also available information. 

    Now you can see as Olsen mentions in his blog that many of the intraday trends are in fact going in fact in the opposite directions against the human positions. And that is the way how the fundamental factors can be turned upside down.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • CamaRon 2833 days ago

    Agreed. I profited from some of this today, but it's fool tricks fool day.

    A lot of the behaviour is referred to in this thread (Volume spread analysis)

    as well as here.

    It's all tied together quite nicely; p.a. and volume.

    Just realising that a strong upcandle, like in cable today, is actually the professionals selling, will bring us a lot further.

  • CamaRon 2833 days ago

    Looking at forex futures can possibly lead us along the way.

    Looking at this 30m g-u chart is an eye opener, because it is very different from a regular spot chart,

    and I believe the futures charts will lead the way. See http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/

  • JohnLast 2833 days ago

    I mean that the classical VSA and the orders analysis are similar but distinctive phenomena. And that is good because it allows  their combination.

    Basicallly as far I know have a high frequency accumulation and distribution. The idea of the big guys are to make their positionning invisible. That is why the chunk their orders in small pieces. (maybe this information is outdated too). So when the VSA was invented the market was different and the VSA patterns were different.

    The market is changing. 

  • JohnLast 2832 days ago
    image
    От 23 септември 2011

    Something strange is going on right now. Practically no orders. Take a look the sentiment changed again. Now it is bearish. Compare this picture with what we got lately. 

     

  • londontrader 2832 days ago

    u know the thing with this is that these are orders not open positions and most of em dont get filled

    heres some open positions

    now arent we the dummest bunch on the planet or are we the most hunted bunch on the planet

    http://i.imgur.com/r7wzN.png

    oanda open positions with price overlay

  • JohnLast 2832 days ago

    I think we are the most hunted bunch on the planet. Imagine that if the price to go from the point A to the point B is X dollars. You can provoque a hell of an impulse with 200 millions. That means you have to open 2000 lots simultaniously in one direction. In practice is much less because there are many algorythms who are going to follow immediately. 

    And Imagine that at the point B there are some open orders waiting you that you will cash immediately. And even more they will allow you not only to cover your costs but to balance your orders. 

  • londontrader 2832 days ago

    oanda is a money machine,they need to have a big link on their site that directs us to responsible gambling or gamblingaddictionhelpline.com

     

     

  • JohnLast 2832 days ago

    jeeze my browser does not allow me to go to the site.

    haha.

    I recomment to all to check this article. It is one of my favorite posts ever.