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Elliotware: How it works?

 

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От 22 септември 2011

This is how Elliotware works:

1. I identify an Elliott Wave structure. This is MANUAL we do not use software. And this is the fundamental difference between this approach and the other approaches. They try to use a machine to force an Elliott Wave analysis.

2. I set the training range to the Elliot wave structure.

3. I apply my machine learning algorithm:  And I have a prediction.

 

 

 

Comments

  • JohnLast 2917 days ago

    I think this is the basic explanation. This is different from the mechanical Elliot wave softwares. There you force the machine to look for an Elliott Wave pattern. According to the Elliotwave international post they do not know any software consistently reliable but they try to make their own research. 

    Here I just reverse the process. Why not use the best pattern recognition process we as humans possess?

    Here for example the 13 September the price action is completely different from what we have now. Why should we should include this in our model?

    During the many hours with Neural network softwares I get awared that the data periods for training is even more critical than the architecture I am going to use. And that is a completely dicretionary parameter. The only thing was that I was fooling my self that I possessed  a tested system. But what kind of tested system may be when the slight change in the lenght of the training periods is about to change everything. 

    There was even more. I used the same architecture, the same periods for testing. I ran the neural net several times. As a result I had several nets  (supposed to be identical) some of them were profitable and some were not. So in every training the net is going to find some local optimum and you can run the net several times it will find different optima and some of them will be profitable and some will not. 

    That is my experience with the nets.

    So I decided to mix up the things with the Elliott Wave analysis. I know some people say it is the best thing. But I know an author who has written several very good books about it and he still counts on his private tutorials and selling self improving books on - line. 

    That happen to be the reality.

    I hope that the combination between machine learning and Elliott wave analysis can give some edge.

    Once I sam one very big yacht ownership of a russian millionares it was named: We'll see 

  • jaguar1637 2916 days ago

    Les grands esprit sont parfois les mêmes idées!

    I found something similar in the Pippo EA and I wanted to understand it this week-end. Because Pippo is an Murrey Maths auto-trading EA by SteveHopwood.mq4 learns datas from the Murrey_Math_Line_X.mq4 , and tried to figure out what's going on Support and Resistance.

    In this blog, you talk about pattern recognition, a different thing

    I dunno how to attach the Pippo EA in my answer. Can you tell me how to do this ?

    All the best

     

     

  • jaguar1637 2915 days ago

    BTW, which patterns does it recognize or are they particular to Elliot principles  ??

    The ones I know are :

    Display_Bearish_Engulfing = true;
    Display_Three_Outside_Down = true;
    Display_Three_Inside_Down = true;
    Display_Dark_Cloud_Cover = true;
    Display_Three_Black_Crows = true;
    Display_Bullish_Engulfing = true;
    Display_Three_Outside_Up = true;
    Display_Three_Inside_Up = true;
    Display_Piercing_Line = true;
    Display_Three_White_Soldiers = true;
    Display_Stars = true;
    Display_Harami = true;

     

     

  • admin 2915 days ago

    Those patterns are relative to the candle stick patterns. They are very good for reversal patterns. 

    I think somewhere I have a tutorial for candlesticks regarding the Forex. In fact as in Forex you can find normally a gap once a week at the Monday opening. Many of the candle patterns are related with the gaps between the candles. So that is a little bit different with Forex.

     

    The second thing is you can find on line mechanical identification of those patterns. I will look for the link.

  • JohnLast 2915 days ago

    There is a tool for authomatic analysys of the candle sticks formation. It is in the Oanda forex labs. I am trying to access it to give an exact link.

    What I can say is that the intelligence agencies when they take a decision they would like to have at least three independent sources of information. In my opinion the same may apply in forex. When I am taking a discretionnary position I would be more confortable when I have at least three independent sources of information.

    The good thing about candles that they concentrate in really bar per bar analysis that is independent from the technical analysis tools which focusses on something bigger: support and resistance lines, trend lines etc.

    That reminds a story from my cousin he attended as a Master degree a trader's school in Paris. And one of his teachers who teached him technical analysis told him that whatever they can say for himself there are not many patterns. And he explained his favorite pattern.

    His Favorite pattern was a combination of:

    a) technical analysis pattern: head and shoulders as reversal formation

    b) oscillator reading: oversold, reading of the stochastic

    c) candle stick pattern

    The problem with that is that the market is not offering that kind of opportunities all the time and you have to wait.

     

    There is another example for a similar pattern this time by the western master of candlesticks:

    It combines:

    a) Bollinger band: the price is at the limits of the bollinger bands at two standard deviations

    b) Stochastic reading: oversold, overbough, reading of the stochastic

    c) Candlestick pattern

    I would like to introduce a fractal dimension reading into all this because a) and b) can and do happen when a very powerfull break - out is under way.

     

     

  • JohnLast 2915 days ago

    Here I show the use according to Steve Nison of Candlesticks in context. In fact he uses three independent sources of information:

    1. The Bollinger

    2. Fibo retracements

    3. Candlesticks

     

    image
    От 22 септември 2011
  • JohnLast 2915 days ago

    My analysis is:

    Here we have a trend.

    a: The Bollinger bands give us probability zones. Normally the bands are set to 2 standards deviations.

    When the price goes to the limits we look for candlestick pattern for a reversal.

    b. Such a candle stick pettern appears. Thanks to Oanda labs we can use machine pattern identification. That is cool.

    It is very important where a pattern emerges. Not all places are equally important. Here Nison concentrates at three particular points:

    • The bounce from the standard deviation;
    • the support at the centerline and the rebounce again at
    • the upper standard deviation.

    And finally traditionally the Fibo retracements are used in trends as identification where the rally would happen. Here it happens at 50 % support level, the 0.5 is not a fibo level per se but it works together with the fibo levels.

    Here it is not stated but we have three independent sources of information.

     

  • JohnLast 2915 days ago

    Anyway this has nothing to do with the Elliott Waves principle and maybe we should have a separate group for that. However everything is linked together. The key is to have independent (uncorrelated) tools.

     

     

  • JohnLast 2915 days ago

    And finally about Pipo EA. This is a grid expert. This is a very, very particular kind of experts.

    I know two specialist of the grid systems Mr. Manov and VGC.

    There are ressources about the mathematical model of the grid systems. Use google translate

    http://forexforum.bg/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=988

  • JohnLast 2914 days ago
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    От 22 септември 2011

    Here I add a screen shot from today. From oanda FX labs

    As you can see there are a lot of patterns availbable however the software is able to identify some of them, especially the reversal patterns.

    Here on the shot it is amazingly accurate. As I wanted to mention this is not a tool to be used alone always, always we should put in context. A reversal candlestick  pattern has a different meaning dependin on where it appears. When a reversal pattern appears we should be careful.