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2013 Shows Eery Parallels To 1913

By jaguar1637 2954 days ago Comments (5)

A hundred years ago, anyone who might have predicted in 1913 the monumental, man-made catastrophes that would occur in the rest of the 20th century would have been considered warped, if not completely mentally deranged.


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  • jaguar1637 2954 days ago

    Why 2013 eerily looks like the world of 1913

    et's get the caveats out of the way upfront. History does not repeat itself -- at least not exactly. Analogies from one period to another are never perfect. However tempting it may be to view China in 2013 as an exact parallel to Germany in 1913 (the disruptive rising power of its age) or to view the contemporary United States as going through the exact same experience as Britain a century ago (a "weary titan staggering under the too vast orb of its fate," as Joseph Chamberlain put it), things are never quite that straightforward. Whereas Germany in 1913 explicitly sought a foreign empire, China in 2013 publicly eschews the idea that it is an expansionist power (though it is perfectly clear about protecting its interests around the world). Whereas the German empire in 1913 had barely 40 years of history as a unified state behind it and was only slightly more populous that Britain or France, China in 2013 can look back on centuries of continuous history as a player in world affairs, and it now boasts one-fifth of the world's population. Whereas Germany's rise was a genuinely new geopolitical phenomenon in 1913, the rise of China today is more of a return to historical normality. These differences matter.

  • jaguar1637 2954 days ago

    1913.

    Britain, whose Pax Britannica, had kept world peace through much of the latter half of the 19th Century, was in decline. The US was emerging as the new manufacturing and economic superpower. The relatively new German Empire, allied with the weaker and declining Austro-Hungarian Empire, was expanding and was closing the gap between itself and Britain as well. Russia, wracked with internal problems, was on the sidelines, but still an important military power. The winds of war and discontent were blowing...Nations were arming up quickly. All the great powers were testing each other with small provocative territorial and other disputes. Terrorists, many of them bolsheviks or anarhists, were blowing up things all over the world. Then in the summer of 1914, Austro-Hungarian Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated by Serbian nationalists while the duke was on a visit to that restive province. War quickly broke out in Europe and the MidEast, as Turkey allied with Germany and Austro-Hungary against Britain and its colonies Australia, Canada, and NZ, France, Italy, and Russia. These countries were drawn into war based upon defense alliances. Spain remained neutral.

    2013. The US is declining economically, especially in manufacturing, vis-a-vis emerging China. The Pax Americana still holds, as it did beginning in the second half of the 20th Century, but looks increasingly problematic as other strong powers emerge. Japan and China escalate naval military tension over some disputed small islands in the South China Sea. China declares a huge area in the South China Sea as its waters, and announces it is beefing-up defense spending as a result, especially its nuclear delivery capabilities. The US is bound by treaty to defend Japan, if it is attacked. North Korea makes threatening moves with nuclear weapons tests, and recently proclaims it will tear up the armistice agreement that ended the Korean War, if the UN imposes severe sanctions, which the UN has voted to do. In the MidEast, Syria is undergoing a devastating civil war, and is supported and armed by Russia, China, and Iran. Iran itself is rapidly watching the clock run out on stopping its nuclear weapons program, before it faces an Israeli/US attack on its nuclear facilities, which could quickly escalate into a regional war, perhaps even drawing in Russia. In SW Asia, nuclear armed Pakistan and India are at each others throats in disputed Kashmir. Layer in Pakistani intelligence agency terrorist attacks in India, and the stage is set for war. Pakistan and China are allied, while we are India's ally and increasingly its major arms supplier. Meanwhile, terrorists are active worldwide. Like 2013, just one key domino has to fall in 2014 (perhaps a major political assassination by one state actor against another?) to activate a reciprocal chain of military alliances and bring the entire world into a war, which could go nuclear and destroy most of the world's population.

    Is history repeating itself...again? One hopes not; but it does look like 2014 could be 1914 all over again, and much worse this time around.

  • virux84 2953 days ago

    I hope that mankind has learned from their mistakes

  • jaguar1637 2953 days ago

    yes, me too.

    So, it's amazing, this kind of 100 years cycle. I notice this stuff too

    all the years w/ "1" as third digit and showing the second period of 10 years at the beginning of every century , are often sad