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What really works?

I have been into forex for 4 years. I am on all of the forums going, but guess what? I have found very, very little that works for me.

My favourite manual system is the synergy advanced system which is a commercial system - this says a lot of things...

All of the forums are stale from my perspective with nothing fresh on tsd / ff - or its that i just dont spend as much time researching forums.

I have a server and do a lot of work on there with my core indicators I like to use and every so often introduce something new or something I have used in the past and try to get it working or improve it.

My current project is going back to the fxcorrelator - which John has picked up on.. Ive spent a lot of time with this indie!

Over the last few weeks my regular indicator core just hasnt performed, hence I ask what really works?  

Comments

  • JohnLast 2843 days ago

    I have made somme comments here it is about the limitations of our extrapolation methods with the current Greek crisis. Are we going to make extrapolation with Neural nets (whatever really) of the secret agenda of the Greek prime minister.

    Obviously for me it will not work. Those tools are not build for that. 

    I mean knowing the limitations of the tools and methods we use is a real strenght. 

    I rememebre when we were trading the Brain Trend double smoothed. (It was another mod different from what we had here). And we made 60 to 120 pips per day. Wow. And the market conditions were perfectl for that. 

    Then the Brain Trend started to loose. Well what to do to tell, it is a shit it does not work, it is useless indicator. And to keep searching for the next holy grail. The other approach is to look what went wrong. And the consequence was that Brain Trend will not work when the market conditions are with High Fractal Dimension. That is because the probabilities are against it. If you have a high fractal dimension the probability of the next movement to be in the opposite direction that the previous are bigger than the continuation. And Brain Trend is based on the volatility treshold break - out idea (I think the best practical implementation arround of this idea). And when we have a volatility treshold break - out but the probability for reverse movement are bigger. It happens that it will not work. It will work very well when we have a big probability that the next bar will be in the same directions as the previous.

    Understanding that gives us a power. And as the market stays for some time in those conditions we would know basically where and when the odds are against us and when it is OK.

    The other interesting thing is that if you looks at 15 minutes time frame and the fractal dimension is very high. It would not work. But if you go down at the 1 m chart, sometimes you can see pockets of predictability there with low fractal dimension. And gues what it works pretty nice.

    The interesting thing is that Brain Trend and Synergy are pretty correlated. As they are both directionnal systems they perform roughly the same.  

  • jaguar1637 2843 days ago

    Yep, you'r right
    The reality hurts, Forex is damned very difficult to deal w/.

    The market is changing from trending to ranging phases, also, there are several strategies that work a long while, and stop w/ no warnings

    Also, there are traders paid by brokers, to tell us very bad behavior, to selll evil EAs, just to sweep out accounts or EAs based on stupid MA calculation and other lagging indies.

    Some traders told they found the Holly Grail, but in fact, their reverse strategies work 1 on 3 times, that means, for one win, you got 2 looses.

    I saw many of craps codes.  At least, 90% EA are not valuable. Some can bring a good idea, but, in general, there are badly coded. Of course, the SL , TS and TP are seen by brokers. That's why traders want you to show your trades and there are paid by banks and brokers to tell you how to setup trades w/ Stopping Loss and Take profit. The new proposal "Options" is a new trap, they offer you 75%, but in fact, their system calculates the average between LONG and SHORT position, and they choose which one is the most profitable for them.

    So, if the strategy is to act like as opening iceberg trades, well do it, those people are just killing the system.

    This web site is to check out , and validate strategies. TSD like other forums, are dealing w/ brokers. ANd the publicity to some brokers, in fact, it's a deal between FX forums and brokers, the brokers give back to those forums a big part of the spread, so, the prupose of some FX forum is to talk about how to set stop loss and taking profit , to drain money from their members......

     

  • JohnLast 2843 days ago

    Just a remark. The question may be misleading? 

    The real questions are:

    1. What really works right now?  What objective criteria Can I use?

    2. How could I know that is has stopped to work? What objective criteria Can I use?

    The realitiy is that the adaptation has to be continious. And that means work guys. Far away from the easy money from the promotianal videos.

    From the smallest retail trader operating with micro lots to the Big Institutionnal Quant shop the same questions arise on daily basis.

    I do not think that there is a kind of an evil agreement between brokers, and forums. The truth is that if you are a forum owner you care mostly of how much traffic you are going to attract and how you would get paid. You care mostly how to protect from spammers and hackers attacks, how you are placed by google. Are your pages SEO optimized.

    The profitablility of the systems developped there is the least of your concerns.

    Making loosing strategies comes naturally  and easy to me, no need to push things LOL.

    And what I blame forums is that they do not share profits with their users and with the people who contribute. I think that a part of the  profit has to be redustributed. Only by that way some kind of serious work can be assured.

  • francisfinley 2842 days ago

    Then what we are looking at is taking systems that operate under a certain timeframe and then operating them within certain periods.

    are we looking for constantly self optimising systems ? It seems that we are. We cannot know in advance what periods will be range or trend we can only know when we are in those periods and then take remedial action. 

    i think you would need to optimise by looking at strength, the frequency/vibration of the market (range or trend) then the system you operate under i.e. a framework for entering a trade.

    As i say i have a core of indicators I have used over the years and they work then stop working and work again - this is the most frustrating part. They stop because the market changes but you cannot know this change in advance.

    Is it a case of ever searching for the identifier of change or do you seek to limit the damage in that change by changing your system through optimisation thus to limit the damage?

  • JohnLast 2842 days ago

    The approch of HighFrec (from another thread) is that he has a portfolio of systems that work well under some conditions and not working at other conditions. What he does is to find a mechanism that will run only the system which has its equity curve  going up. 

  • francisfinley 2841 days ago

    how does one know that the equity curve is rising in advance?

    the key is to find what affects the frequency/oscillation of the market in advance - the only pointers can be support and resistance?

    i.e. you have a range system and trend system. That then flips between the 2 in heavy or light S&R areas?

    I guess this could be highlighted in areas of extreme strenth - i.e. the distance away from other currencies on FXcorrelator - if bunched together no trade?

     

  • londontrader 2840 days ago

    people get it wrong with these sr's because all banks are doing is hedging and that kind of forms an equilibrium in price over time,and sometimes it bounces off sr and sometimes not,.

    the thing is not knowing sr's but knowin when they hedge/thats the trick of the trade ;)

    i have seem numerous times the ea make a perfect pattern when it touched ema 1440(this moving evarage number wasas given to me by yaed from ff,he was the most brilliant template creator,but he gave up on the market,because he simply relied on techanalysis,and of course that doesnt work

    u need the behing the curtains activity,to know how the plays gonna play out

    its a bit like a big theatre,

    one time,the market made this reallyylow down formation,and it touched the ema 1440 and the it reversed,because the ema is so powerful

    i wouldnt oslely use it for trading,but it does help a lot

     

  • JohnLast 2840 days ago

    LOL, I just do not think that banks are going to pay big salaries to their boys every month and they will come out with the solution of ema 1440.

    Anyway that may looks funny but there are many believers in the 200 SMA. 

     

     

  • JohnLast 2840 days ago

    The honest approach is to back-test everything, but is it achievable? There is a lot of work you just can't do everything. I feel sorry for the brilliant template creator. The success does not come easy.

     

  • francisfinley 2840 days ago

    the last few weeks have been totally news driven - how does one account for that - not fundamentals nor technicals. just pure news driven events, not even news results/ figures, just rumour mill overdrive.

  • JohnLast 2840 days ago

    yeah and crazy volatility break - outs like today, total correlation between EUR/USD and indexes.

    It looks like European politicians do not like that and would like to insert the the taxe on finanial transactions. The idea is to kill the speculatvie volatility and HFT. I do not think that this tax would hurt the retailers because it does not need to be a huge tax, but need to include not only market orders but limit orders too. 

     

  • londontrader 2839 days ago

    "not even news results/ figures, just rumour mill overdrive.

  • londontrader 2839 days ago

    lol.not really rumours are based on insider info and thats the only good way to trade that i know of                                                                    yesterday the euro fell to 35,because of the increasing italing yields,i was reading yesterday that since italy has now a yield of 7% they will have to pay more 70b a year,rising yield means,the price of the bond is getting cheaper,because nobody wants the junk bond,and they have to offer more in return for the investors,but itally is running at a deficit around 2% i think or something,france has a bugdget deficit at 100b  yestrday released,uk trade balance deficit around 100b too,so those 3 surely did make the news ,,,u cant out more negativity than that,italy has around 1.5 trillion in debt,compared to greece around 500b,if italy goes bust theres no one to save it,then spain,portugal,irish,faken the whole europe,francee.................

  • londontrader 2839 days ago

    john,yea lol the magic ema of 1440,

    it can help u ,but it  cannot trade for u

     

  • londontrader 2839 days ago

    the bankers get their bonuses cause they are marketmaking,and collecting the spread,plus fx is not their sole source of income,its only about 20% 

  • JohnLast 2839 days ago

    It is crazy how the EURUSD remain correlated with the indexes. The total economy is affected not just a pair.

     

     

  • francisfinley 2839 days ago

    ok lets move this forward. We have our favourite systems. I will call them frameworks. I dont think anyone would argue the best frameworks/systems we have here are synergy & brain trend. What we need to be doing is using a mechanism like entropy to capture market noise/frequency/vibration. You have settings within your framework to turn on braintrend/synergy system a or b. (trend or range). 

    one size does not fit all.

    find the mechanism and make the switch and deploy system a or b.

     

    who is with me on the quest?

  • JohnLast 2839 days ago

    I have always been, but I prefer to relax instead to trade on range mode.

     

  • francisfinley 2839 days ago

    nice idea, however, problem being you do not know when you are or will be in range mode. 

    Even with our mechanisms (indicators) telling us of range it will sneak out into trend and snap back in.

    We need to overlap the systems to minimise loss - do we run a & b at the same time? trend and countrend, trend and range?

     

  • francisfinley 2837 days ago

    John is there a way we can have a section for whats hot now / whats working - there are a few of us who trawl the net / forums / speak to each other who know what works...

    id like a little section for what really does work and whats hot... i.e. ea's we find that are working like that eurchf ea jag and cam had?

    Maybe our own quality index system for indicators/ea's/systems 

    heres mine...

    Manual systems

    http://www.compassfx.com/synergy/   (there is trading made simple on ff and a synergy forum on tsd)
    http://fxcorrelator.com (correlation indicator)

    best steve hopwood ea's on ff
    http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=325292

    http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=313680

     

    resources

    http://www.forexstrategiesresources.com/metatrader-trading-system-mt4/

    http://www.forex-tsd.com/

    http://www.forexfactory.com/

    http://indo-investasi.com/forum.php

    http://forex-strategies-revealed.com/

    http://worldwide-invest.org/

    theres a load more like donnaforex, elitetrader, babypips, forexpeacearmy...... 

  • francisfinley 2833 days ago

    another resource - this is steve hopwoods new forum. 

    FF were a bunch of dicks as usual.

    check out MPTM if you want a management EA - i use it on my ea's http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com

  • JohnLast 2833 days ago

    I am not very aware of the ideas of hopwoods. The problem is that what works and what does not is pretty dynamic. 

    For example the last tests on the ASCTrend expert it looks like it works for 4 hr time frame and the daily but it miserably fails below it. 

    I agree to track what is hot is the main idea of the site. 

  • francisfinley 2833 days ago

    For me I do not look above 30 minutes on any of my systems. Of course others do.
    I would suggest USDCHF is optimal for my systems on 15 minutes.

    I am still trying to crack EURUSD which is a fucking bitch.

    Remember - the DAX is the easiest market to automate and I stand by that wholly - you can get it on MT4 from certain brokers - there is no excuse not to have a go at automation on the DAX.

    FOREX is a different beast.

     

    In terms of dynamics - we need to look at things like ssa/volatmeter/correlation/entropy do deliver critera of what is working and what is not working and use the systems as and when those criteria are met. This is what I am currently working hard at on my systems.

    I am running around 24 versions of EA's atm on DEMO - these are just my own...... 

  • JohnLast 2832 days ago

    Wow a lot of work isn't it!