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Cycle analysis in forex

By KAUSTUBH 3771 days ago Comments (12)

Watch the video of this proprietary cycle analysis tool fro wave59.Was wondering whether something similar exists for mt4. I have Goertzel cycle indicator but its not quite like this. It has some cycle scanner which scans the data for dominant cycle and then plots the cycles in future. The combination of short and long term dominant cycles in market gives probale turning points.

NOTE: I am not affilated with this....just curious to know whether similar can be developed for mt4.

http://www.whentotrade.com/decoding/cycles.php

I find coding in C# or java much easier than mql4 ormql5. Ninjatrader has a nice strategy wizard that does half the work.

Comments

  • JohnLast 3771 days ago

    This is very interesting. This is a lot of work from this guy. What is the most interesting it is the user freindly experience. I really liked when the dots started to move on the cycle. 

    The cylce analysis is a never ending story. The possibility fo find deterministic cycles and predict market turning points is so powerfull idea.

    However the realities are others. The market rarely produces nice cycles like that. What is interesting to me is that he uses end of day data. Does it mean that with end of day data the result may be better? It has to be investigated. We do have some very powerfull adaptive  cycle indicators and systems under metatrader. I have a whole thread in TSD about that. However I use there the cycle period indicator of Ehlers that is freely distributed (cycle period indicator). Then I use it in WPR and Stochastic. Then I used it as input in the digital ASCTrend system hoping that it would make the system adaptive.

    I had another idea. This is to use a back propagation neural net for Metatrader and adapt it to 1.5 of cycle period that is an optimum sampling and use it as input of a neural net. And the neural net was going to approximate the function without assuming that it is a   smooth repetitive oscillation

  • JohnLast 3771 days ago

    JEEZE the guy is asking 1995 USD for his book.

     

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    От 22 септември 2011
  • KAUSTUBH 3771 days ago

    Thanks for the feedback. Some of things  you say go high above my head.....but I will try to understand....hehe.

    Yes...quite costly indicators and books.

     

  • JohnLast 3771 days ago

    Unfortunately I cannot point a system tell you the price and tell you that this is everything you need.

    Really I cannot. I do not know such a system, not in the realm of the normal retail traders. Yes, I have tested a lot of things and I will tell you I have seen some systems costing a lot of nuts fail like any other system.

    Here in order to beat the spread in the market I promote a fair approach in sharing. Yes if you look at the picture of the brain trend you would say jeez that is a holy grail. Not it is not. That is a system that has its strong points and its weak points (strong points are that it is very succesfull in trending markets and in markets that even if they are not trending have persistent movements, the weak point is that it is not succesfull when the movement is jagged and antipersitent, but knowing that you can predict the future performance). And it is really important to know the strong points and the weak points of systems.

    There is no magick in trading systems. Most of the trading systems are highly correlated in fact. For example the trend following systems in their pefromence they are highly correlated each other. I remind reading a blog it was in early august most of trend following trading systems of Eur/Usd were really very succesful, and so were my system. Then the seasonal range in august and those systems and mine too would not succesfull.

  • KAUSTUBH 3767 days ago

    Checked Goertzel browser.....very similar to what they offer in wave59.

  • JohnLast 3767 days ago

    Well they cannot reinvent the wheel. The auther says he has found a "routine" for cycle analysis. What exactly that mean is not very clear. Ehler says he work on MESA, Noxa Analitics say they work on SSA trying to make it casual (non repainting), Meyers Analitics work with Fast Fourrier Transforms. The serious people say what they are selling and what they are doing.

     

    The goertzel browser could be of some use if we have an end - pointing version as for SSA ep.

     

     

     

  • KAUSTUBH 3754 days ago

    One way to use Goertzel browser  is to find out dominant cycles in given timeframe and then finetune the indicators using it.

    eg

    If Gortzel browser shows dominant cycle period to be 44 with max amplitude, then we can take 44 as dominant cycle in current timeframe and use 44 or its 1/2 or 1/ 3 value as peiords of indicators. So RSI of 22 would show better signals than default RSI of 14 since it correlates with dominant cycle in market.

    This is described in Decoding hidden market rhythm book for wave59.  I am uploading the book under name ' cycles'.

  • JohnLast 3754 days ago

    Yes that is the way to use it. However there are other parameters too that need to have in consideration. the signal to noise ratio, the hurst exponent (fractal dimension), the current entropy, the volatility (time of the day), are there news releases coming soon that could affect the volatility , the market structure, now the oanda open orders ;) etc.

    But yes please share your result. I suggest you use digitally smoothed oscillators. I have a whole library.

     

       

  • JohnLast 3754 days ago

    You can use also the corona cycle period from the Corona system. You can also use the MESA library from richcap. However the Goertzel according to what I have read looks to be the most reliable. However bear in mind that those cycles are not stationary.

     

     

     

  • JohnLast 3589 days ago

    The goertzel algorithm in mt4, is one of the biggest disappointments you may have by using advanced indicators. I remember very well the debate about MESA versus Goertzel and how Goertzel is way better in detection market cycles.

    However the Goertzel as realized in Forex TSD is repainting because as it uses future data. When you plot the end-point version you may laugh how much cycles have been detected  by the Goertzel.

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    От Поле за пускане
  • JohnLast 3589 days ago

     Well that is the best MT4 indicator to show dominate cycles, lol?

    The problem is that maybe there are not any cycles at all. That is the big problem, not the issue of their detection.

    So what we have in our arsenal:

    1. The goertzel indicator for mt4.

    This indicator is available in Forex TSD in their elite section. There are plotted two versions. The normal version is repainting, that is why below is plotted the non repaainting end-poit version of the cycle indicator.

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    От Поле за пускане

    2. The Cycle period indicator

    (available just with Google search). This is the set of adaptive indicators available for Metatrader 4.

    In the shot we have: Adaptive RVI, Adaptive Center of Gravity, Adaptive Cyber Cycle. At the bottom is the Cycle period indicator which calculations are adapting the adaptive indicators at the current lenght of the dominant period or precisely 1/2 of the dominant period.

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    От Поле за пускане


    3. The Corona cycle indicator for mt4 (Forex - TSD elite sections), nobody trades it but it is one of the most beautiful indicators.

     

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    От Поле за пускане


    4. The MESA adaptive indicator by richcap (they are with gpl license see on the chart, very nice).

    Those are MESA (Maxumum Entropy Spextral Analysis) adaptive indicators .

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    5. The Discrete Hilbert Transform by Forex Digital Solutions

    The cycle identification here is different from the indicator cycle period.

    image
    От Поле за пускане


  • jaguar1637 3290 days ago

    sorry, I just fell in the trap by opening a new blog, I did not know you were talking about the same things "the big spirits meet each other !"

    Well, my question is  (before coding anything), where to fetch a dominant cycle ?