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Katy Lien Eur/Usd analysis video

By JohnLast 2669 days ago Comments (4)
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000136122

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Here I will post a Kathy Lien video about the current situation on 19.12.2012.

She has a long position targeting the break-out (I was talking too about a break-out). 

From a fundamentl perspective she makes some comments about fiscal cliff and an optimism about Euro crisis and after all she has a long bias.

Anyway, this was the first thread in beathespread, and we somewhat forgot this thread. Now I am reading the posts most of them discretionary analysis. And hey I was right most of the time about big moves coming and Euro going to hell again.

Mostly I was surprised LOL.  

Here I want to make a comment  and a warning about the current situation. 

What Katy does is classical analysis. The classical analysis has two parts.

a. Fundamental analysis of the main driving forces and deriving a bias long or short based on the expert and discretionary knowledge.

Here in this case Katy does so and she has a long bias. From what Jaguar is talking there are others who have the same bias. But I really do not have an opinion on it because I am not a fundamental analysis specialist.

b. She makes a technical analyis and we are clearly in a break-out situation that is so obvious. And last but not least the technical analysis is giving the risk control for placing the exit stops.

 

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От elliot waves

 My comment is that that is the traditional way to do things. You can add also some more exotic ways of technical analysis as the Elliott waves for example. Here is a screen shot of an Elliott wave analysis with simplified counting (the simplified counting is used in order that everybody could get the reading and not the specialists alone).

So the Elliott waves picture is that we are in a global complex triangulat pattern in EUR/USD that is really hard to predict on the long term but do have some local predictability.

Here is the chart and of course regarding the position entry it mirrors the normal technical analysis regarding the break-out opportunities.

 

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От elliot waves

 

However in beathespread some more methods ans approaches have been proposed. 

The method we propose is that we identify the market conditions locally.

As for the current situation we can just observe and measure the local market conditions. Thr trchnical analysis may be just smoke and mirrors as we jave observed so much sharp V-turns.

So what can be done is to use an EA model that is adpated locally to this market conditions. So if the break - out continues the EA model will follow it. If there is a sharp tern the EA would reverse just in time and follow the reversal.

I think this is what professionals do, I am simply explaining in plain English.

Have a nice day. 

 

Comments

  • JohnLast 2669 days ago

    Here is the trade she actually does on the pair EUR/USD today today 19.12.2012.

     

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    От FXhackers
  • JohnLast 2669 days ago

    Here I add a screen shot of locally optimized neural net models to illustrate my point. The neural net models are optimized with the local trading conditions. Here I will not explain what are the models and the input what matters is that they use for training the data from 1 november 2012 until today and they use as test data the last 12 days.

     

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    От EA tests

     

  • JohnLast 2651 days ago

    Unfortunately this trade did not turn that good. The stop at 1.30 was hit.

  • JohnLast 2603 days ago

    Despite the stop being hit the trade was really good. The direction and the targets were very good. However the risk control was not that brilliant. Anyway that is the real world. 

    Despite I am not an alliotician my EW count post factum looks pretty impressive ;).