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Fundamental articles: Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Really?: Revision

I wonder are there some other particular fundamental situations as the present one on EUR/CHF. I am interested in that kind of fundamental situation, because we may try to build up a quantitative model to profit from that particular situation. 

I am not really interested by the the fundamental data like that:

Forex: EUR/JPY falls below 103.00 after Fitch downgrades

It is always for the past. And most of the fundamental information provided constantly by the most of the sites is a complete rubbish for me of no use. Most of the analysis are completely discretianory the EUR/USD did that because of that, or because that. I would like to cite Wikipedia.

Post hoc ergo propter hocLatin for "after this, therefore because of this," is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) that states, "Since that event followed this one, that event must have been caused by this one." It is often shortened to simply post hoc and is also sometimes referred to as false causecoincidental correlation, or correlation not causation

Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because temporal sequence appears to be integral to causality. The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection.


I mean that using judgemental methods does not mean to apply a free style judgemental anlysis. In reality we are constanlty attacked, bombarded with that kind of information from everywhere. Most of the time you can read opinions that the same fundamental information can explain contradictory consequences. 

Well I happen to read one very interesting book. The book is Principles of forecasting: A handbook for researchers and practitionners. editted by Scott Armstrong.

The judgemental analysis does not mean that there are no structured methods that can eventually boost the predictability.

For example as for the fundamental analysis it is possible to extract some key fundamental data that can historiacally explain the movement of the instrument. What is really important and what is secondary?

That I really I never see on most of the fundamental articles.

Text mining is not easy ;)