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  • Antony commented on the blog Theory CHAOS 3860 days ago
    JohnLast thanks for your answer and your link, but if not you tell me if I wanted to look for the similarity as the ratio of scale, first I have to look for it...
  • Antony published a blog post Theory CHAOS 3860 days ago
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    • JohnLast 3812 days ago

      The method is historical and has a historical value. What really counts is the ability by Bill Williams to explain the technical analysis to new traders. He is a real top master in that aspect.

      However we should take into account that those methods were never expected to be used in Forex. They were designed for the equity market many years ago.

      So some 30 years ago the MACD was the top of the research.

      So once upon a time this stuff was on the top of the technical research. It was using the best available instruments at that time the MACD and machine optimization by the so called "Main frame", computers.

      By Machine optimization Bill Williams found that the settings  for MACD work very well for divergence trading for Elliott waves trading. See this internal link for more details.

      Slow 34-period simple moving average, plotted through the middle points of the bars (H+L)/2, 

      Fast the 5-period simple moving average, built across the central points of the bars (H+L)/2

      This was the profitunity MACD 5-34-5 see page. 111 from the original Book Trading Chaos first ed.


      Later in in the second book (New Trading Dimensions) it was used simple moving average with 5 and 34 (to make somewhat different) and that was called the Awesome Oscillator ( see page 55 in the book New Trading Dimensions by Bill Williams).

      As it was mentionned the settings were found using a machine optimization completely unavailable for the ordinary trader at that time, and that was the top gun research.

      That makes some people smile by now but even the computarized bars (that we consider now for granted) were considered a top research and they were condsidered to give an edge.

      Even today the profitunity Trading group is number 1 in the Stocks and Commodities Trading Systems selection: 

      You can check this stuff explained into nice videos with some additional information and market hints, you can get for the cost of 3000 USD. That is the Home Study course.

      And of course as a matter of indicators there is not anything that has not been coded for Metatrader.

       

    • JohnLast 3811 days ago

      Critical appreciation

      As it is indicated in the Stocks and Commodities site this is a discretionary trading system.

      The say also that:

      Because this is not a black box system, it is difficult to backtest. Results will vary based on the individual trader. The average ROI is 10% monthly.

      I can agree that it is difficult to back-test but 10 % ROI monthly it is a little bit over exagerated. That makes 120 % per year and nobody in the professional business makes that much. Just because the risks involved with that are inconsistent with the institutionnal trading (as much as far as I know).

      So this is primerely targeted for relatively wealthy Nord Americans with interestis in the equity market.

       

      Reading Bill williams you will find that he behaves more as a guru than as a real trader, imposing an simplistic easy to understand model of the world and using somewhat an ersatz Chaos Theory.

      The idea is that the reader get an inner response: Jeeze that is not so hard, I will get rich in an year.

      The next phase is that those 3000 USD look nothing compeared to the way of the riches you expect following his more intimate insights in the private course.

      The guy looks at the sight of Stocks and Commodities and this appears as the best available trading system. So the choice is made. 

      That is the way the buseness model turns.

      They they sponsor Stocks and Commodities and the Stocks and commodities name them as the best trading system. You do not believe that but please comme on look at the first page who are the sponsors.

      They sponsors dp sponsor the Stocks and Commodities and  Stocks and Commodities  name them as the best: traidng systems, softwares etc.

      Check here: and look at the right.

       

      Maybe you will find me a little harsh, but those looosing their account using "à la lettre" his methods know better.

       

      On the other hand this is a very well documented discretionary system. And of course Bill Williams has a major contribution in the Elliott wave analysis.

      And even more he has a real talent to explain things easily. 

      From trading perspective the system is designed with the old equity markets in mind (slow and consistent trends with not that much volatility)


      This is a trend following system:

      The system is designed to keep you out of choppy and flat markets: This is the alligator filter.

      There is a good price action system: the fractals:

      The system tracks the volatility: the alligator

      So basically whenever you will have a nice trend the system will perform nicely.

       

      The system will have problems  whnever it faces bigger volatility. 


    • JohnLast 3811 days ago

      And despite the critical appreciation, even today there is not anything better written about the practical use of indicators in an discretionary approach (I do not mean that it is the best but that there is nothing really and substantionally superior).

      What is the most intresting is the practical use and the synergy between tools.

      Well on the other hand who am I to discuss prices and courses, everything has its price submitted to the law of supply and demand.

      The idea here is to warn you not to have overly optimistic expectations about this stuff and most of all Do not bet your house on this and everything else ;).

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