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Started by JohnLast 3503 days ago Replies (11)

Open Orders Diuscussions ...

Let discuss it.

    JohnLast 3503 days ago
    От Oanda open orders
    Here I would like to add the situation from today. The the buy orders clearly served as a resistance to the down trend on the EUR/USD. 
    It may serve for intraday swing trading as target identification. In fact what matters really is the exit point. It has been proved that a system with random entries can beat the spread if there is a proper money management and trailing stops procedures. And very often our technical analysis entries do not perform any better than the random entries. 
    When the market has a clear direction I think that now is no longer an experimental feature but can be used in the day to day trading routine. I will keep monitoring the utility. 
    Please feel free to participate and share if you find any other patterns.
    JohnLast 3494 days ago
    От Oanda open orders

    Here I add the open orders from today. Do not forget that today is a particular day in US.

    Here we see that there is a huge distribution of open orders above the price. There are  a loot of Sell orders there.

    From this disstribution of orders it look to me that many traders are expecting the down trend to continue and are waiting for a correction to time their entry.

    However if that happens that means that a sharp correction is going to take place and only god knows what is going to happen with the sharp reversal and where it can go. 

    So if the question is where is the trend: that is the random part part, you do not know.

    If the trend is established, the random part is how it is going to evolve and if it is time to time the entry.

    By random I mean not that it is random but I mean our limited knowledge about what is going on, as in the example of the difference in knowledge about the sex of the baby between the normal guy and the physician who just did a echographic scan.

    It appeart to me that the masses have decided that the trend is down and are waiting the market to correct to time their entry.  


    JohnLast 3439 days ago
    От Oanda open orders


    Here I post another shot for the Support and Resistance identification using Open orders. 

    The idea is that the technical support and resistance levels are not enogh. The accumulation of open orders at technical support and resistence lelves is a way to confirm them.


    JohnLast 3437 days ago
    От Oanda open orders

    And what a surprise the market has visited those levels. I really consider that the effort to make a monitoring of the leves that are appearing is worth the effort for mapping the support and resistence levels.


    JohnLast 3425 days ago


    In this shot I would post a situation from today. This is an example of point attractor. At that level we had an accumulation of levels. When such level exists very close to the current price levels there is a probability that it would be hit. 


    However this is not enough for a trade without other kind of evidence, it is just a map of the market plotting information. 

    You need another evidence in order to take a trade. In this example I was short because I had a signal from a fresh trained neural net indicating a probability for swing to the downside and I took the signal.

    Usually with neural net signals based on neural net extrapolation I prefer to use scaling in, than scaling out, that is a choice and nothing more. This all happend very fast so I was not able to think about it, the break - out was very powerful.

    So I like to have a momentum system alongside neural net system. I really, I am not confident to let neural net trade on automode. I am not, maybe you are but I am not, so I am far away from consisetn trading with neural nets (just to note).

    In this example I had the Synergy System plotted on 5m time frame. I like this system a lot, and that is one of my favorite systems because it has a volatility treshold, the directionnal signal is valid only if there is enough volatility.

    When I heard that audio alert I knew something was going wrong with my neural net signal and I had to get out. Discretionary I know (but usually neural nets are leading indicators allowing you to get into the trade early, however whenever there is a powerfull break - out against them it is better to get out of the trade). That is why I prefer to scale in and not scale out.

    From a momentum signal I prefer the opposite to scale - out. That measn to have two positions one to cover the spread and gain a few pips and the another to have the bigger winner. Some authors like Joe Ross are writing that if you do not do that you are gambling, having the market against you and you can't win. He recommends even three positions:

    The first to cover the cost:

    The second to gain a few pips:

    And the third to set the stop at break - even and not to close it hoping for the home run and sliding the stop as the maret goes into your direction.

    That sounds great, and it is, but in practice ot does not work as a magic spell boosting your profits. It is hard.

    However the Oandian graphic is giving another edge. Here we have a very clear projection of possible support and resistence levels allowing to find profit levels with increased accuracy.


    От Oanda open orders


      JohnLast 3425 days ago

      What is interesting here is not the signal, that is a break - out form range, you do not even need a system, the signal is obvious even from the naked chart. 

      What is interesting is the take profit accuracy. That is what it is about.

    JohnLast 3425 days ago

    The bigger frame of the oandian chart is also interesting. The accumulation of levels reacted as cycle attracters for the large price swings. When you look them you ask your self what if you could by at the bottom of each and sell the top. That would be great. Indeed but ...

    OK take a look at the chart. 

    I think that this information would be usefull for the experienced traders. 


    От Oanda open orders